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General research and portfolio discussion only. No investment or trading advice, trade signals, or offer or solicitation to buy or sell an instrument. Views and future scenarios are uncertain. Capital is at risk. Read the disclosures ↗
Global Oil Market Update
A medium-term bearish crude update: improving export flows are not yet proof of a surplus. Inventory rebuilding, freight premiums and the slower recovery in refined products determine the path lower.
Read the researchLatest research
View allRead the original reports with their publication dates. The historical return review is separate.
Global Oil Market Update
Why oil remains elevated despite the recovery in physical supply
AI Infrastructure Is Moving From an Adoption Cycle Into a Utilization Cycle
Why agentic AI suggests we may still be underestimating hyperscaler demand, cloud growth and the duration of the data-center buildout
The Energy Peak, Refining Normalization and the Next Major Repricing in Global Bonds
Research update — September 30, 2026
Main Full-Risk Portfolio
Investment manager's report
AI Compute to 2030: Scarcity Migrates, It Does Not Disappear
A physical and financial underwriting of how much AI capacity can be delivered, where the bottleneck moves next, and what OpenAI and Anthropic must earn to support their infrastructure commitments.
The week uncertainty clears
Why the final week of July is a credible Nasdaq bottoming window - and why Friday should be treated as the decisive confirmation session rather than a preordained low.
Gold's bear market is real; the macro turn is not yet here
The January blow-off has been removed. The durable bottom should come when falling real rates, not balance-sheet optics, change the opportunity cost of holding gold.
General market research only. No investment or trading advice, trade signals, or offer or solicitation to buy or sell an instrument. Views and future scenarios are uncertain. Capital is at risk. Read the disclosures ↗