Independent cross-asset research
How I think
about markets.
I’m Stoic_research. I write about equities, commodities, FX and macro, looking at what is changing in the economy and what that could mean for prices. Alpha Research is where I publish my long and short views, full reports and updates.
Behind Alpha Research
Why I write.
I started writing these reports to make sense of what is happening in markets. There is always another headline, but it often leaves the more useful questions unanswered: why does this matter, who is affected, and how does it change the outlook? Writing helps me work through those questions and explain where I think the market may be heading.
I usually begin with the connection between the economy and an individual asset. A recovery in energy supply can lower fuel prices, ease inflation and change interest-rate expectations. Higher investment spending can create demand for one company while putting pressure on another company’s cash flow. I want to understand those effects before drawing a conclusion about price.
I’m interested in situations where my expectations differ from what seems to be priced in. That means taking the opposing case seriously. If I’m bullish, I need to understand why someone would sell. If I’m bearish, I need to understand what could improve. My view is an interpretation of the information available, and I can be wrong.
The approach
How a change reaches the price.
A market story becomes useful when I can explain its economic effect. For a company, I look at revenue, costs, margins and cash flow. For a commodity, I look at production, consumption and inventories. For a currency pair, I compare policy, growth and capital flows across the two economies.
Timing matters as much as direction. Oil can fall before inflation data improves, and demand can grow before spending produces cash flow. I try to explain that sequence, what the market already expects, and what still needs to happen for my view to work. The reports set out the assumptions, possible catalysts and conditions that would make me reconsider.
Research updates
I explain when my view changes.
The original report stays available. When I publish an update, I explain what happened, how it affects the earlier view and what I’m watching next. You can read the latest assessment alongside the first report and the intervening updates. These are speculative views of possible futures, not promises of what markets will do.
What I cover
Equities, commodities, FX and macro.
01 / Equities
Companies and valuation
How a business earns money, what may change its earnings and cash flow, and how much of that is already in the share price.
02 / Commodities
Supply and demand
Production, consumption, inventories and the supply constraints that affect availability and price.
03 / FX
Currencies and interest rates
Differences in interest rates, growth and capital flows, and what they could mean for one currency relative to another.
04 / Macro
Inflation, growth and policy
Inflation, monetary policy, liquidity and growth, with a focus on how they affect the markets I’m researching.
The community
Discuss the research with me.
The reports explain the full view. My daily analysis covers new developments in supply and demand, policy, earnings and market flows. In the community, we discuss those developments and what they mean for the research.
You can join the free community to read the public commentary and take part in the discussion. Pure Alpha Private includes my full research, daily analysis and personal portfolio commentary. The community page explains the membership options.
View the community options ↗Accountability
The planned model portfolio.
The planned model portfolio will connect published research to specific allocations. Its rules, holdings and annual reviews will show how those decisions perform alongside the research updates. The prospective performance record has not started.
Read the methodology ↗